Changing strategy, Russia can prolong the Ukraine conflict

Changing strategy, Russia can prolong the Ukraine conflict 2

Changing strategy, Russia can prolong the Ukraine conflict

`One of the tasks of the Russian army is to completely control the Donbass region and southern Ukraine, to create a land corridor connecting with Crimea,` Major General Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of the Russian Central Military District, said in a statement.

General Minnekaev further explained that if they control all of southern Ukraine, Russian forces will open the path to the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova, where he said `the Russian-speaking community is being oppressed.`

A soldier of pro-Russian forces in the port city of Mariupol, southern Ukraine, on April 20.

Observers believe that this statement shows that Russia’s ambitions in the second phase of the military campaign in Ukraine are much greater than the statement `liberation of Donbass` made earlier this month.

Two months after launching the military campaign in Ukraine, Russia abandoned its original strategy of `quick attack and quick victory` to control key targets throughout Ukraine, including the capital Kiev, according to Pascal.

Russia appears to have learned some lessons about objectives and tactics from the difficulties encountered in the first few weeks of the campaign.

Michel Goya, a retired colonel of the French army, said that the goal of controlling the Donbass region and southern Ukraine that Russian forces set will come with many challenges.

Ausseur said the current plan of Russian forces is to establish an offensive axis from the Kherson region on the banks of the Dnipro River, to the city of the same name in the north and then to Izyum in the east, in order to lock down military units.

Changing strategy, Russia can prolong the Ukraine conflict

Russia’s deep penetration in eastern Ukraine.

‘Mariupolization’ strategy

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on April 19 that Russian forces would `advance cautiously` in the second phase of the campaign.

`They realized that the strategy of winning fast and winning quickly was not successful,` Ausseur said.

`They will Mariupolize the whole campaign,` Ausseur added, referring to the southern Ukrainian port city, which has been besieged and endured a series of non-stop attacks from Russian forces over the past two months.

`It seems that the Russian army wants to pursue a ‘scorched earth’ tactic, seeking to break the will of the Ukrainian army with overwhelming force and relentless artillery fire, in order to force civilians to evacuate, separating them

Some experts believe that the Russian army also sought to create a pincer position by advancing east of the Dnipro River, aiming to encircle the majority of Ukrainian forces according to the `Mariupolization` tactic.

Clarke said that to avoid being forced into a pincer siege, Ukrainian defense forces have dispersed on many fronts, in order to stretch Russia’s supply and communication lines.

To support Ukraine during this period of fierce fighting, the West has increased heavy weapons aid, especially after US President Joe Biden announced a military support package worth 800 million USD to help Ukraine.

However, to promptly support Ukraine, they also have to race against time.

`Even if the vehicles have left warehouses in Europe, they still need to go through some maintenance procedures before being ready to leave for Ukraine,` he said.

NATO members have begun supplying Ukraine with S-300 air defense missile systems, but Ausseur noted that deploying these systems will take time.

France said it was transferring Milan anti-tank weapons and Caesar self-propelled guns to Ukraine.

Ukraine will need to establish a `steel dome` to defend itself against aerial attacks by Russia’s overwhelmingly powerful air force, Ausseur warned.

`They need a solid shield to disadvantage Russian forces,` he said, adding that if Ukraine fails to build a capable air defense network, Russian fighter jets can completely dominate the sky and

For now, few observers predict the conflict will end soon.

`The current common scenario is that there will be high-intensity bombardments lasting many weeks,` Ausseur said.

Alexander Khramchikhin of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, based in Moscow, believes that the fighting could even last for many years.

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