Risk of war between the US and Iran

Risk of war between the US and Iran 3

Risk of war between the US and Iran

The Iraqi General Mobilization Force (PMU) announced that General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds task force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed along with Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandi in the attack.

The Pentagon later confirmed that the US military carried out the airstrike on orders from President Donald Trump to `prevent future Iranian attack plans`.

The airstrike that killed General Soleimani took place in the context of high tensions between the US and Iran after a series of incidents in the Gulf such as seizing oil tankers, raiding Saudi Arabian oil plants, and shooting down US reconnaissance UAVs on the waist.

Iranian general killed in Iraq

Baghdad airport was in chaos after this morning’s airstrike.

Iraq recently became a new `battlefield` in the US-Iran confrontation.

Tensions began to escalate on December 27, when the K1 military base in Kirkuk province, northern Iraq was attacked by rockets, killing a US military contractor and injuring a number of US and Iraqi soldiers.

Just two days later, the US responded by airstrikes on three Kataib Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria, killing 25 militia fighters and injuring 51 people.

Immediately afterward, the US Department of Defense continuously issued warnings to Iran, accusing it of instigating and organizing the attack on the embassy in Baghdad.

`The game has changed. Any attack against us will be responded to promptly with the method and location we choose,` US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced yesterday.

Analysts say that Esper’s statement shows that the US considers Iran to have crossed the limit and that the country is ready to use the most drastic measures to protect its interests and prevent the threat from Tehran.

Iran has long enhanced its regional influence through armed groups in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, but is often not directly involved in attacks on US and allied forces.

`Kataib Hezbollah is very close to the IRGC. The rocket attack on the Iraqi base was clearly carried out with Iran’s consent. It is difficult for Tehran to deny responsibility after this incident,` Iran expert Ariane Tabatabai

750 US soldiers were urgently dispatched to Kuwait after protesters stormed the US embassy in Baghdad. This is a combat force that will leave for Iraq if the situation continues to worsen.

`Tehran understands that casualties of American citizens are Washington’s red line,` said Dina Esfandiary, a scholar at the US Century Foundation.

Risk of war between the US and Iran

American soldiers departed for the Middle East on January 1.

The US has often responded to Iran’s moves by airstrikes on Tehran-backed militia targets in the past.

`Iran will counterattack, it’s just a matter of choosing the target,` predicted Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA official and an expert on Iran.

Some other experts believe that a small-scale war between Iran and the US will soon break out.

According to Jones, the airstrike that killed Soleimani would be the spark that ignited the gunpowder barrel, because it targeted one of Iran’s most important military officials.

`The conflict between the US and Iran has so far been mainly indirect, but Soleimani’s death will likely provoke extreme reactions from Iran’s military leadership, sparking a direct clash between the two sides.`

Risk of war between the US and Iran

A car was destroyed after an attack near Baghdad airport early on the morning of January 3.

However, observers believe that if a clash breaks out between the two sides, it will only stay on a small scale and will hardly erupt into an all-out, destructive war.

`It is unclear the scale of Iran’s response. They will have to be very cautious and carefully calculate before acting. Neither side wants to break out in a total war because it brings no benefits, both sides have too much to do.`

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a Middle East scholar, said Iran could target the US embassy by gathering large-scale protests or firing artillery and rockets to increase pressure.

`The air strikes have dealt a heavy blow to Iran’s proxy forces. They will respond fiercely on many fronts. However, this may cause them to lose more key leaders and make it difficult to avoid responsibility.`

Duy Son (According to Wall Street Journal)

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