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Two ways to fight epidemics between China and Korea and lessons for Vietnam

Two ways to fight epidemics between China and Korea and lessons for Vietnam 30

Two ways to fight epidemics between China and Korea and lessons for Vietnam

(Opinion articles do not necessarily coincide with VnExpress.net’s views.)

Up to now, we have seen each country fight the Covid-19 epidemic in unique ways and with very different results.

I would like to give my opinion on these two anti-epidemic models.

1. Complete blockade, prohibiting people from going out if not necessary, including going to work for about 1-3 months.

2. Partial lockdown, still retaining business activities that create great economic value, people can still go to work, restricting some non-essential businesses, encouraging people to stay at home.

3. Maintain social distance: It is recommended that people do not gather in large groups and keep a distance of 1-2 meters from each other.

4. Rapid large-scale testing to track F1 and random search in the community.

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China used the first method, Korea used the second, third, and fourth methods.

– China: Currently adding about 40 new cases every day.

– South Korea: The last three weeks have had about 100 new cases every day (we see a cyclical increase and decrease weekly due to people’s work schedules; Monday and Tuesday will have the lowest number of cases).

Initially, I was very impressed with Korea’s method, because in the short term it will not cause as much expense and disruption as the first method, it will still keep businesses operating, people will still work and control the epidemic even when the epidemic is over.

However, in the end, South Korea’s approach only aims at a saturation threshold (ie, the number of new cases every day is equal to the number of people discharged from the hospital). For Korea, this threshold is about 100 new cases per day, if the death rate is 1

If an average person recovers in two weeks, then at saturation there will be about 100*14=1400 patients in the hospital at a time, which will not cause medical overload.

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However, when all the large clusters are caught, only many small clusters remain silently, it becomes much more difficult.

To completely stamp out the Korean epidemic, other measures must be applied.

If there is a vaccine within 6-12 months, the number of deaths from the pandemic will increase.

The Chinese way is simply understood as maximum prohibition, sick people can only spread within the family.

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So I call the Chinese method the method of suppressing the epidemic without a vaccine and the Korean method the method of controlling the epidemic while waiting for a vaccine.

So if we have to choose between two methods of suppressing the epidemic and controlling the epidemic while waiting for a vaccine, I think Vietnam will lean towards the method of suppressing the epidemic, because in the long run, Korea’s method will cause more loss of life.

However, there is not only one way to stop the epidemic before there is a vaccine, which is to ban it like China.

Rapid testing is not as good as Korea’s because it still has to be purchased and materials are now scarce.

Vietnam also has the advantage of not allowing the epidemic to spread as widely as in Korea.

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Based on the current world situation, I see the possibility that many other countries will choose the path of controlling the epidemic and waiting for a vaccine.

After four weeks, Vietnam certainly cannot reach the point where everyone is looking in the same direction. As long as 10% of people are not aware, the disease will still spread, the R0 rate > 1, cases will slip through the net or not go away after a while.

Authorities should encourage social distancing, regularly test hot spots like hospitals, and on the one hand, issue strong sanctions to punish violators, because only 10% of people are not conscious, the effort is 90%.

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